Well in the last 3 hours the rain/snow mix has changed over to nearly all snow here in Albany. Still, the ground is too warm for accumulation but 2-5″ has already fallen in the hills around Albany. Thus far it has been bizarre this morning. Albany and Pittsfield are both reporting Snow, while Glens Falls, Bennington, VT and Binghamton are reporting rain and temps about 5 degrees warmer than Albany! Elevation is playing a role, but Binghamton and Bennington are both much higher than Albany, while Glens Falls is 40 miles further north! At 11 am the temp is 33 in Albany with Light Snow. Pittsfield is 32 and Moderate Snow. Bennington is 38 and Light Rain, Glens Falls has Moderate rain and 37! Binghamton is 37 and Cloudy, Syracuse has a Rain/Snow mix and 34 and Saranac Lake is 33 with Light Snow. How often does Albany and Saranac Lake have the same hourly report?
Not much has changed in my previous thinking. The NAM looks the warmest, the GFS somewhere in-between and the NGM the coldest. Thus far the GFS/NGM solution is panning out, especially the often maligned NGM. I’m going to lean with the colder NGM and keep Snow or a rain/snow/sleet mix in the Albany area through the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Little Accumulation expected in the valley’s, but the hill-towns could easily get another 2-4″ by dark.